2022年も残り2ヶ月と少しとなりましたが、データセンターREITの株価は悪化の一途を辿っています。シンガポールREITを代表するKeppel DC REITも年初来で-28%も下落しています。
Jim Chanosの"データセンターREITは売り"というレポートは現在あたっており、業界最大手のEquinixも年初来で-40%と暴落しています。この株価は2020年3月コロナでの暴落した水準とほぼ同じ価格です。
According to the Financial Times, short seller Jim Chanos believes that data centres in REITs and that are not owned by Alphabet, Microsoft and Amazon are going to be behind the curve so to speak. The web service arms of the trio, Google Cloud, Amazon Web Services and Microsoft Azure have their cloud services housed in their own leading edge data centres. For instance Google has a state-of-the-art data centre in Jurong.
Chanos is quoted to have said the cloud is growing but “the cloud is their (the REITs’) enemy, not their business. Value is accruing to the cloud companies, not the bricks-and-mortar legacy data centres.”
In fact, Alphabet, Amazon and Microsoft are likely to be the REITs’ biggest competitors, not their biggest customers. When your biggest competitors are the three most vicious competitors in the world you have a problem, Chanos is reported to have said.
Jim Chanosのレポートによると、データセンターREITにとって、Amazon, Microsoft, Googleなどのクラウドビジネスは顧客ではなく、競合になると言及しています。これらのクラウドサービスは最先端のデータセンターを独自で運営しており、その規模は拡大を辿っています。これらの最先端のデータセンターと戦うのは至難の技で、この競争下ではマージン悪化につながり、利益も圧迫されてしまうというのが、DC REITをショートしている背景です。
一方、データセンターを買い増している投資ファンドのDigital Bridgeの見解はどうでしょうか。*長めの記事ですが、データセンター業界の推移について詳しく記載されていますし、上記Jim Chanosのレポートに対するコメントも含まれているので、ぜひ全文読むことをオススメします。
昨今、Equinixのようにデータセンター銘柄は、税制メリットのあるREITの形式を取ることが増えてきました。しかしDigital BridgeはあえてREITから通常の企業形態に変えました。Digital Bridgeはこの8年間で$48 billionのデータセンターを取得し、Equinixに次ぐ業界2番手クラスの規模まで急拡大しています。
By 2013, Ganzi had built up a wireless infrastructure REIT, Global Tower Partners. At that point, he sold GTP for $5 billion, to American Tower Partners, but he wanted to carry on, and address digital infrastructure more broadly.
He recalls: “I had just sold my digital REIT, and I really felt like there was a lot more work to do in the sector. Thankfully, I was correct. There was a lot more work to do. I don't think I quite had envisioned how much.”
元々Wirelessインフラ系のREITを傘下にもっていましたが、そのREITは2013年にAmerican Towerに売却し、次の幅広いデジタルインフラ関係のチャンスを狙っていたようです。
Today’s data center sector has changed, with the pressures of data sovereignty, expanding storage needs, and the arrival of Edge: “The complications of the ecosystem today is far different than it was 20 years ago, when Mike Foust was imagining what Digital Realty was going to look like in 2003.”
Today, data centers are interesting, because “you can't take one big paintbrush and say, ‘this is data centers,’” he says.
“It used to be that we had big colocation data centers, and we had managed cloud services or hybrid IT, which were bought inside of a data center. And that was it. As an industry, we were a one-trick pony,” he remembers.
“Today, you have five very distinct and different businesses,” he says. “You have large public hyperscale campuses; you have large, private cloud hyperscale campuses; you have hyper Edge, which is the 500MW down to 4MW sector that Equinix and DataBank are doing so well; you certainly have enterprise colocation; and then you have managed services.”
“The reality is the opportunity just gets sharper and clearer every day - and it keeps growing,” he says. “Close to $200 billion of capex will be spent this year on cloud infrastructure. So data center spend on a global scale has never been bigger than it is today.”This is because “data begets data” he says, with high-powered applications creating more data that needs to be stored.
今のデータセンターREITの状況は、データの主導権を取る重要性やストレージ増強など、インフラとして必要不可欠なものになっており、そのニーズは拡大し続けています。それはクラウドサービスだけではなく、ハイブリッド型のITインフラやプライベートクラウドなど多様な形でのニーズ・ビジネスチャンスがあります。
The concept has almost universal acceptance, but this year, investor and iconoclast Jim Chanos, famed for short-selling stock, announced he would bet against REITs.
So far, the data center ecosystem has declined to comment on Chanos’ statements. Our view is that Chanos needs to back up his ideas, and show he understands the industry well enough to issue his prophesy of doom.
Ganzi likewise, declined to comment, but continues to be positive about REITs: “I think a REIT is a great idea,” he says. “I think it's a great idea when a business hits a certain phase in its cycle. I think where Digital Realty is, and Equinix is, they've achieved a size and scale and credibility with public investors. There's a steadiness to their cadence about returning capital and growth.”
While the holding company is no longer a REIT, some of its companies are: “Two of our companies are REITs: Vertical Bridge, is a private REIT, and Vantage is a REIT as well. And DataBank is moving to REIT.” Upcoming acquisition Switch is also a REIT.
Others might follow: “To the extent that we can make other businesses digital REITs, we are in favor of that.”
To operate as a REIT is a balance, he says. “Equinix and Digital Realty really found that nice balance between doing greenfield and mergers and acquisitions, but also divesting of assets at the same time.”
The established REITs sell off older, less attractive facilities, he notes, “recycling capital back into younger next-generation facilities. That makes a lot of sense, because some investors want to pay for the yield and that that was a great trade.”
REITかNon-REITの形を取るかというのは、会社の規模によって決まるもので、Equinixのようにすでに大規模に展開できて信用力もある場合はREITストラクチャが良いし、Digital Bridgeのようにholding companyの場合はそうではない。EqunixのようなREITストラクチャである場合は、古くなった設備を売却して最新設備を取得するなどのポートフォリオの入れ替えが行いやすく、長所と言える。
Small companies (like DigitalBridge itself) can get all their IT from the public cloud, but larger organizations need a private cloud, and someone to host it: “There's going to come businesses that do require a private cloud solution, whether it's the US Federal Government, or a banking institution, or a shipping company or an IT services business. Some people don't want to put their workload environments into the public cloud,” he says.
Digital Bridgeのような小規模な企業の場合にとっては、成長余地の高いプライベートクラウドの分野も熱い。エッジコンピューティングも同様。マーケットで過小評価されているSwtich(配下の企業)を非上場化し、今後のチャンスを伺っている。
“We're incredibly thoughtful buyers, and at the end of the day, based on what we had paid and how much EBITDA has been generated at Vantage, we're now into Vantage at a single-digit multiple. That took five years to get there.”
By that same process, he plans to get DigitalBridge’s investment multiple in Switch down to eight to twelve in a period of five years: “And we're going to do that through building and leasing into that 1.3GW of future capacity. We're confident we can double the EBITDA in the next five years.”
データセンタービジネスは割安で買いのチャンス。利益も拡大しているし5年で利益2倍になる。
They have to post figures every quarter. They have to raise capital every quarter, which is painstaking. When you're an infrastructure fund like us, and you have funds that are 11 to 13 years in duration, we can be patient. There's a velocity and a cadence to how we put money to work. And we're not in a rush. Right? This isn't a sprint, this is a marathon run.”
これは短距離走ではなく、マラソン。なので急いで一気に拡大せずに忍耐強く進めている。
Switch had been expanding internationally through joint ventures in Italy and Thailand, but Supernap Italia was bought by IPI Partners, and Switch Thailand is reportedly for sale, as the company slimmed down for a sale. Could DigitalBridge’s backing revive Switch’s international ambitions?
“I can’t comment on that,” says Ganzi.
一方、一部タイ子会社については売りに出されており、規模縮小に舵を切っているように見えるが、そこについてはノーコメント。
The second point is what got him excited. He tells us that DigitalBridge is helping to fund data centers for historically-black colleges and universities.
“It's not about just creating and building a data center. It's also creating a core curriculum with classrooms and teachers that can give young diversity candidates a chance to get the education.”
He’s talking about DigitalBridge’s partnership with ImpactData, a company with a plan to build and operate purpose-built colocation data centers on the campuses of Historically Black Colleges and Universities (HBCUs), backed with integrated learning.
The project will turn students into “the most wanted young employees,” says Ganzi, “because they come with a skill set that's specialized, that's built for the next economy. These young adults will come out of school with hardcore, real digital training. They don't teach that at Harvard. They don't teach it at an Ivy League school.”
大学向けのデータセンター事業も行っており、そこでの人材確保なども狙っており、今後のユースケースとして期待しているようです。
所感として、Digital BridgeのCEOがコメントしている内容は、目新しい内容はあまりなく現時点でマーケットに反映されているように思います。しかし、マーケットに反映されるのは短期的な目線の部分のみで、長期的に大きなインパクトを与える事項ほどディスカウントされて反映されてしまいます。そのため、今のマーケットの調整はデータセンターのビジネスが今後さらに拡大して長期的にあげる利益を反映していません。つまり、これから5-10年のテクノロジーの進化・IT化を見越した時に、半導体と同様、継続してビジネスは成長し続け、大幅に規模は拡大します。今後、データセンターREITはGrowth銘柄扱いというよりは、インフラ銘柄と同じような位置づけの安定銘柄として投資対象になってくると思います。
